The purpose of the article is to evaluate the current state of the grain market, to determine the main factors influencing the formation of demand and supply, and to determine strategic guidelines for its development and a regulatory mechanism in Ukraine based on the developed forecast parameters. Research methods. During the research, the following methods were used: comparative analysis and expert assessments for the analysis of quantitative and qualitative indicators of the development of the domestic grain market in terms of globalization; statistical-economic for the collection and processing of statistical data, studying dynamics of exports and imports of grain; economics and mathematics for prediction of the impact of demand (consumption on food and feed purposes, exports and stocks) and supply factors (yield, gross fees, crop land, imports and stocks) on the grain market for the period up to 2025. Research results. In order to achieve the goals and objectives, the article assesses the current state and main trends of the market for domestic grain. The lack of efficiency of the mechanism of grain market regulation in Ukraine based on the obtained indicators of “Market price support” per one ton of grain and “Nominal producer protection coefficient” used in countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which will support the substantiation of managerial decisions, taking into account effectiveness of their impact on the welfare of commodity producers, consumers and the state. Forecasts of gross yields of cereals and legumes, as well as grain consumption for food and feed purposes for the period up to 2025, were done. This made it possible to form preconditions for balancing supply and demand of grain, determining an export potential of the industry, and developing a system of state regulation measures aimed at prevention of probable problems of grain production development. Conceptual approaches to the formation of an efficient logistics system in the grain market were formed. Elements of scientific novelty. Scientific novelty lies in further developed theoretical positions and methodological approaches to assessing an efficiency of grain market regulation based on the use of the indicator “Market price support” (MPS), which will support the substantiation of management decisions, taking into account their impact on welfare of commodity producers, consumers and the state. Practical significance. Along with the positive dynamics of increasing a volume of production and export of grain, obstacles substantiating further development of the grain market in Ukraine were substantiated. Proposals for elimination of the obstacles were made through the improvement of a mechanism of the state regulation of the grain market. Tabl.: 3. Figs.: 3. Refs.: 19
grain market; grain production; mechanism; state regulation; logistics; export potential